Predicting who’s gonna win a championship before the season starts in any sport is guess work at best. The best you can do is take a look at who’s coming back, factor in the additions and subtractions to the current team and assuming that injuries are constant, use all of this information as a proxy for who you think will survive a grueling season and playoff run.

And so, as I watched and graded the NBA off season — not the pre season — I came to one simple conclusion, the Lakers will not repeat as NBA champions.

Western Conference

The Lakers have the best player in the West, and possibly the entire league, in Kobe Bryant, but the best team in the Western Conference resides in San Antonio. Let’s face it the Lakers are basically the same team minus Trevor Ariza and with Ron Artest. No doubt Artest gives them another outside threat in coach Phil Jackson’s triangle offensive attack and I’m not one of those who thinks team chemistry will be an issue, I simply think the Spurs are a better team.

Which lineup would you feel more comfortable with in the fourth quarter of a tight game? Would you be more confident with the Lakers lineup of Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum or with the Spurs lineup of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess. The Lakers bench is deeper than the Spurs and that’s nice to have during the regular season, but when the game’s on the line the Spurs have more reliable weapons.

The addition of an athletic, floor runner in Richard Jefferson to complement Parker’s fast break ability was the off season move of the year, one that will lead the Spurs to the NBA finals. Of course, if a starter for either team goes down then they could both exit in the first round just like the Spurs did last year without Ginobili against the Mavericks.

The Beasts of the East
Who will the Spurs face off against from the East? The Cavaliers will be fun to watch but I don’t think adding Shaquille O’Neal puts them over the top. The Magic added another dynamic play maker in Vince Carter and a real nice rebounder and high energy forward in Brandon Bass, but Orlando also lost Hedo Turkoglu to the Raptors.

The Celtics were the defending champs in 2008-09 and won 62 games. The champs lost all-everything forward Kevin Garnett before the playoffs started. Losing a player of Garnett’s status would keep any team from repeating. During the off season the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to their bench, giving them perhaps the deepest bench in the NBA on top of what many consider as the best starting five. How can you pick against the Celtics?

NBA Finals
The Celtics and Spurs will be a slugfest that features the second and third best defensive teams from a year ago. In a series I fully expect to last seven games I will take Boston.

SportsFags Poll Results
Our Sportsfags poll shows 50% of gay sports fans believing the Lakers will repeat. One thing we can all agree on, it’s a long damn season.